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Mitt Romney speaks at the Defending the American Dream Summit in Washington.  (AP Photo/Haraz N. Ghanbari)

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Associated Press/Haraz N. Ghanbari

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Illustration: Patrick McQuade

Mitt Romney is a stiff.

Republicans tend to nominate the guy who came in second last time. This year, that’s likely to be Romney. Romney’s problem: He’s a certified 1 percenter running in a time of discontent over economic inequality. An elitist who embodies every patrician foible from Nelson A. Rockefeller to Judge Smails, he comes off as the boss who tells you he can’t afford Christmas bonuses, then drives off in his Lincoln Town Car.

Democratic pollster Greenberg Quinlan Rosner has Obama and Romney tied at 45–45 in a hypothetical election, but has Obama’s approval rating at 45 percent, compared to 25 percent for Romney.

“I think Romney’s going to have a problem of, he’s a Wall Street guy, a rich guy whose $12 million house in La Jolla is only a quarter as big as [Romney wants] it to be,” says Andrew Baumann, a vice president at the polling firm. “If I had to bet money now, I’d say Obama beats Romney by a narrow margin. Against any other candidate, Obama would win comfortably.”

The candidates who really excite conservative Republicans—New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal—are waiting for 2016 when they won’t have to run against an incumbent.