No he can’t?
Three reasons why Obama could lose in 2012.
He’ll struggle to win the red states again.
In 2008, Obama won Indiana, Ohio, Colorado, Virginia and North Carolina—all states that twice went to George W. Bush. Obama won’t win Indiana a second time, predicts Andy Downs, director of the Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics at Indiana University–Purdue University Fort Wayne.
“In a landslide year, he won [Indiana] by 25,000 votes,” Downs notes. Health-care reform wiped out that small margin: “We’re a conservative state. When you talk about a government program that spends a lot of money, that turns off a lot of Hoosiers.”
To win Ohio and North Carolina, Obama will need another strong black turnout, says Dante Chinni, director of the Patchwork Nation project, which analyzes the electorate by breaking the country down into 12 community types, from “monied ’burb” (such as Highland Park) to “industrial metropolis” (such as Chicago).
Also, the states Obama won in 2008 lost six electoral votes in the 2010 census, which makes hanging on to the growing South and West even more important.
Saving grace In Florida, Obama may benefit from the misrule of tea party Gov. Rick Scott, who was dubbed “America’s Least Popular Governor” by Time magazine after turning down federal stimulus money and cutting higher education.
“Virginia I think more and more is becoming Democratic,” Chinni says. “Northern Virginia, it’s a very dark blue.”